Decision Making

Romeu Gaspar's picture
A decision tree to help you navigate through the multiple techniques available to collect opinions, analyze ideas, and reach consensus.
Romeu Gaspar
More often than not, decisions today are made by teams, based on a broad number of collected ideas and opinions. Collecting these inputs and then reaching a consensus can be made through a broad number of decision-making techniques. In this article we analyze five of the most popular ones: Prediction Markets, Surveys/Polls, the Delphi Method, the Nominal Group Technique, and the venerable Face-to-face Meeting.
Exhibit 1 – Proposed decision tree to select the most appropriate decision-making tool
Exhibit 2 – Comparison between the accuracy of prediction markets and polls, for several US presidential elections
Exhibit 3 – Example of how differences in wording can dramatically change the results of a survey or poll
Exhibit 4 – Quantitative results from a comparative study that asked 227 participants to estimate 10 data points, first individually, and then using one of three decision-making methods
Exhibit 5 – Example of an output from a Nominal Group Technique
Exhibit 6 – Results of the qualitative evaluation requested to the 227 participants in the experience described in Exhibit 4
Exhibit 7 – The Meyers-Briggs Type, an indicator of how people perceive the world and make decisions